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Short-term flood forecast by 1st week of July

Published : 28 Jun 2021 09:47 PM | Updated : 29 Jun 2021 12:37 AM


Torrential rains in upstream continued to inflate waters in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins causing   a prelude to a short-term flood in Bangladesh's north and northeastern regions by middle of the first week of July.

Bangladesh Water Development Board’s (BWDB) Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) forecast  a probable “short-term” flood in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins covering the country’s northern and northeastern parts by the first week of July.

“The upper riparian Indian regions of Arunachal, Assam Meghalaya and West Bengal are likely to witness heavier downpours by the next 24 hours inflating water levels of the Brahmaputra-Jamuna rivers,” FFWC executive engineer M Arifuzzaman Bhuiyan told BSS Monday.

Engineer Bhuiyan predicted the deluge might start engulfing low-lying areas along the Brahmaputra basin from the first week of July when the river might cross danger marks at different points.

He made the prediction analyzing the numerical weather models of meteorological departments of Bangladesh and India suggesting heavy rainfalls this week in Bangladesh’s north and northeastern regions and adjoining states of India.

“There is a chance of heavy rainfalls in the Northern, North-Eastern, South-Eastern regions of the country along with places of adjoining Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Tripura states of India in the next few days,” he said.

As a result, water levels of the Teesta, Dharla, Dudhkumar, Brahmaputra rivers of northern Bangladesh and the major rivers of Upper Meghna basin in the North-Eastern region and South-Eastern Hill basin may rise rapidly at times during this period.

“If the forecast turned true, low-lying areas of Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Bogura, Sirajganj, Tangail, Manikganj, Pabna, Naogaon and Natore are likely to be exposed to a short-term deluge,” he said.

At the same time, low-lying areas of Lalmonirhat, Rangpur and Nilphamari might experience short-term flooding following sharp rise in water levels of the Teesta and Dharla rivers due to heavy rainfalls in the upstream and downstream areas.

The FFWC, however, said it saw no possibility of a simultaneous flooding in Ganges-Padma basin covering remaining parts of northwestern Bangladesh to aggravate the situation.

But, Engineer Bhuiyan said that the morphological trend suggested a steady rise in the water levels in the Ganges-Padma River systems during the next one week following heavy rainfalls in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh states of India in the upstream.

As result, water levels of the rivers might cause further rise and cross the dangers marks at places inundating the low-lying areas of Rajbari, Dhaka, Munshiganj, Faridpur, Madaripur, Shariatpur and Chandpur in the central part of the country during the period.

“From the end of June onward, water levels of the Brahmaputra and other smaller rivers of the north and northeastern regions might continue to rise rapidly to cause a short-term flood,” Bhuiyan said.

He added that the water level in the upper Meghna basin covering northeast and parts of central Bangladesh would swallow as well to cause a short-term flooding but unlikely to cause a synchronized deluge in a greater part of the country’s central areas.

Under an official arrangement the FFWC receives in advance information about heavy downpours, floods and declaration of red alert situations in India’s Bihar, Assam and other upstream regions during the rainy seasons through the Joint River Commission.

BWDB simultaneously avails flood related data on the Brahmaputra from the Department of Water Resources in China, where the Brahmaputra originated, enabling Bangladesh to take advanced preparedness against any major flooding.

Talking to BSS BWDB’s chief engineer for Rangpur zone Jyoti Prasad Ghosh today said his office has taken adequate early preparedness to face any situation during floods in Rangpur division.

He said BWDB’s Rangpur division has been successfully implementing a project spending Taka 62 crore for construction and repair of flood control structures and other devices at several points across the zone.

“Repair of flood control embankments and other devices by the sides of major rivers in all eight districts of Rangpur division under Rangpur zone of BWDB have mostly been completed before the possible upcoming ‘seasonal floods’ this year,” he added.