Ahammad Parvej Khan
Bangladesh’s economy showed distinct signs of gradual stabilization during the fourth quarter of FY26, anchored by robust remittance inflows, a substantial accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, easing price pressures, and a notable rebound in June exports.
However, underlying economic activity remained generally subdued, according to the latest review by the Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MCCI).
In its Review of Economic Situation in Bangladesh (April-June 2026), the trade body highlighted that provisional estimates place the country’s GDP growth for FY26 at 4.14 percent, marking an improvement over the 3.49 percent recorded in FY25.The external sector emerged as the principal engine of macroeconomic stability.
Remittances surged to US$9.38 billion during the April-June period. This influx pushed gross foreign exchange reserves up to US$37.58 billion by the end of June, compared to US$34.48 billion in May.
Consequently, Bangladesh closed FY26 with a record overall balance of payments surplus of US$6.61 billion—a 94.69 percent year-on-year surge.
The financial account rose to US$7.89 billion, up from US$3.60 billion in FY25, effectively offsetting the widening current account deficit. Foreign exchange market volatility also subsided significantly.
Reflecting stronger remittance flows and moderated import payments, Bangladesh Bank made net currency purchases of US$6.43 billion in FY26, reversing net sales of US$503.38 million the previous year. Total imports rose by 10.07 percent to US$75.24 billion, largely driven by raw material demands within the readymade garment (RMG) sector.
Inflationary pressures showed signs of cooling toward the end of the fiscal year. Headline inflation eased to 9.16 percent in June from 9.42 percent in May, while food inflation dropped to 8.60 percent from 9.06 percent, supported by normalized seasonal crop supplies.
Average general inflation for FY26 stood at 8.68 percent, down from 10.03 percent in FY25.Export performance offered a late boost, expanding by 24.93 percent year-on-year in June to reach US$4.19 billion, though total annual exports edged up by just 0.17 percent to US$48.38 billion.
Domestic credit flow showed moderate vitality, with industrial term-loan disbursements growing 21.08 percent to Tk 23,748 crore in Q3, and agricultural credit expanding 14.76 percent to Tk 42,834.16 crore over the full year.Despite these positive markers, the MCCI cautioned that the recovery remains fragile.
Persistent inflation, sluggish private investment, constrained fiscal space, and structural vulnerabilities in the banking sector continue to pose risks. Moving forward, sustaining reserve gains while accelerating private sector investment will remain crucial for a durable economic turnaround.
