The present steady rise in Covid-19 infections and deaths is likely to reach its peak in the third week of this month, experts said.
The experts also said that the worst situation of corona infection may exist in Dhaka city and its environs, Gazipur, Narayanganj and some areas of Chittagong.
Experts suggested speedy implementation of zone-based lockdown measures to prevent further transmission of the virus.
According to them, the infection rates need to be reduced quickly in order to contain further spread of the virus into other regions where the infection rates are still low. Patients should be identified and treated in isolation. Otherwise, a more deadly outbreak of infection can occur.
As per the Worldometer, a reference website that provides real-time statistics for Covid-19 situation of the infection, Bangladesh is currently in the 20th position in the list of countries with most cases. India stands sixth and Pakistan 17th on the list.
While some hard-hit countries are slowly getting back to normalcy amid the Covid-19 pandemic and anticipating a second wave, it is still unclear if Bangladesh is in its peak or heading towards the peak.
Bangladesh confirmed the first three Covid-19 cases on March 8 and now the cases have reached over 80,000. The number of cases looked relatively modest till mid-May, but the upward trend in Bangladesh, likewise neighboring India and Pakistan, suggested it is yet to reach the peak in mid-June.
Professor Nazrul Islam, a former virologist at Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), expressed his annoyance over the government’s role for not monitoring public movement right before the Eid-ul-Fitr.
H said, "I think the number of cases will shoot up in mid-June since so many people headed for home across the country flouting the health guidelines. If some of them are infected, they will spread the virus countrywide.”
Nazrul Islam also said that the infection rate has increased by 1 percent compared to the past. It is fluctuating between 18-21 percent. But not rising. This is a huge advantage for us. The rate of infection must be lowered from this flat situation. This requires enforcement of a strict lockdown system.
The same advice was given by the former chief scientific officer of the government's Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR) Dr Mushtaq Hossain. He said that the situation can not be brought under control unless the rate of infection is reduced. Social distance restrictions or lockdowns should be implemented quickly to prevent human-to-human transmission.
However, both the experts believe that the death rate in corona virus is still at a tolerable level in the country. Asked about the corona's 'highest peak' or 'peak', they said that the current rate is the 'peak'. ‘Peak’ means one went up, then down. We have a 'flat peak' here now. I mean not Everest. This is the ‘peak’. Now we have to reduce from here.
However, on May 31, a 71-year-old Rohingya man died of coronavirus infection in the world's largest refugee camp in Ukhiya's Kutupalong of Cox's Bazar. Health experts fear if a Covid-19 outbreak at the congested Rohingya refugee camps is not checked, it could turn into a health catastrophe.
Meanwhile, the health authorities did ramp up testing capacity compared to the number of tests done in April. The number is still significantly low in terms of population size and density as those are much higher in Bangladesh compared to many other countries around the world.
It is difficult to get the real picture of Covid-19 situation in Bangladesh without rapid testing since community transmission is happening. Although daily cases remain below 4,000 on average in the past few days, the ratio of positive cases to the number of tests conducted per day does not really show any sign of flattening the curve soon.
According to the Worldometer, Bangladesh is currently testing 2,338 samples for every one million people per day, and as of Saturday the country detected 84,379 cases so far. Pakistan is doing 2,995 tests per million and 93,983 people tested positive so far in the country. India tests 3,281 samples for each million population and 237,395 cases have been recorded so far.
However, the death toll now stands at 1,139 and the death rate at 1.35 percent, Dr Nasima Sultana, additional director general (administration) of DGHS, said during a briefing on Saturday.
A total of 16,638 samples were tested in 59 labs across the country in the last 24 hours, Dr Nasima said. Meanwhile, 578 Covid-19 patients have recovered since Saturday, taking the total number of recoveries to 17,827 and recovery rate to 21.13 percent, the DGHS official added.
