Although manufacturing electric vehicles and their batteries requires a large amount of energy and produces substantial emissions, a new study finds that EVs quickly compensate for that initial impact — becoming cleaner than gas-powered cars within just two years of use.
The research, conducted by Northern Arizona University and Duke University and published Wednesday in the journal PLOS Climate, concludes that gasoline vehicles cause at least twice as much environmental damage over their lifetimes as electric vehicles. It also predicts the benefits of EVs will continue to grow as renewable energy sources like solar and wind increasingly power the grid.
“While there is a bigger carbon footprint in the short term from battery manufacturing, EVs surpass gasoline vehicles in CO2 savings by the third year — and the gap keeps widening for the rest of the car’s lifetime,” said Drew Shindell, an earth science professor at Duke University and co-author of the study.
What the study examined
Researchers analyzed data on air pollutants tracked by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, comparing how EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles affect air quality and climate over time.
They found that EVs emit about 30% more carbon dioxide than gasoline vehicles in their first two years because of the energy-intensive process of lithium mining and battery production. But after that, EVs’ lifetime emissions drop sharply — especially as cleaner electricity sources replace fossil fuels.
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Modeling four different EV adoption scenarios — from 31% to 75% of new vehicle sales by 2050 — the study estimated that each additional kilowatt hour of lithium-ion battery capacity reduces carbon emissions by an average of 220 kilograms (485 pounds) by 2030, and 127 kilograms (280 pounds) more by 2050.
“The ongoing reduction in CO2 emissions is driven not only by EV use but also by the cleaner energy mix powering them,” said lead author Pankaj Sadavarte, a postdoctoral researcher at Northern Arizona University.
University of Michigan sustainability expert Greg Keoleian, who was not involved in the research, praised it as a “valuable study” confirming the environmental and economic advantages of EVs. “Accelerating the transition to battery electric vehicles is critical for decarbonizing transport and reducing the long-term costs of climate change,” he said.
A cleaner grid, cleaner cars
Shindell said the power grid will naturally become greener as renewables expand. “Nobody’s going to build new coal-fired plants to run EVs — coal is far more expensive than renewables,” he said. “That means the grid will get cleaner, which makes EVs even better for the environment.”
Experts agreed, but cautioned that supportive policies are essential. Under President Donald Trump, the federal government has rolled back incentives for EVs, reversed emissions rules, and halted nationwide charging initiatives, slowing progress toward cleaner transportation.
“The rest of the world is moving forward,” said Ellen Kennedy, principal for carbon-free transportation at the nonprofit RMI. “In the U.S., much depends on what states and local governments can do to keep momentum.”
While the study did not address end-of-life battery recycling, Kennedy noted that advances in recycling technologies will help reduce the environmental impact of battery production.
EVs face challenges despite environmental benefits
The findings come as U.S. automakers and consumers face uncertainty over EV policy and market growth. Interest in EVs has increased in recent years, but sales momentum has slowed amid shifting regulations and reduced incentives.
Former President Joe Biden’s target for 50% of new U.S. vehicle sales to be electric by 2030 has been reversed under Trump, along with federal EV tax credits and emissions standards.
Shindell said the study highlights how counterproductive those rollbacks are. “If we want to protect ourselves from climate change and air pollution, the solution is clear: encourage the shift from gasoline engines to electric vehicles,” he said.
