Ban Ki-moon former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was pragmatic in his comment during his participation in the Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) international conference held in Dhaka a few years ago. He pointed out that despite many constraints “Bangladesh is our best teacher in climate change adaptation”. He noted that Bangladesh, in the front line of countries facing problems arising out of climate change, had gained significance because of its handling of adaptation objectives. It was also observed that "If sea levels were to rise by just one meter, 17% of the country (Bangladesh) would be underwater by 2050, According to the IPCC, parts of Dhaka itself could be engulfed by slight rise in sea level".
Other participants in this international conference included dignitaries like Marshall Islands President Hilda Heine, World Bank CEO Kristalina Georgieva and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. They noted that while the rest of the world continued to debate various aspects, different mechanisms and possible effects of climate variability and climate change, for Bangladesh adapting to a warmer, more violent, less predictable climate had become a matter of absolute survival. Such observations emerged because of lack of promised funding to manage the different dimensions of the crisis resulting out of climate variability – that is staring at all of us right now.
The projected varied effects of global warming that has come up for discussion over the last year and a half has included possible increasing of global surface average temperature by approximately 1.67 to 5.56 degrees Celsius by the end of the century and secondary effects like changes in patterns of precipitation, rising sea levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased extreme weather events and also the possible expansion of the range of tropical diseases.
It would be fitting to note here that Bangladesh like some other Pacific Islands has taken several anticipatory measures in this regard. This includes adaptation initiatives like cultivating water resilient crops, home solar systems and the creation of a climate trust fund.
Adaptation is especially important for Developing and Least Developed countries as many among them have less capacity to adapt, but are expected to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming. Furthermore- there is another factor- the degree of adaptation also correlates to the situational focus on environmental issues. Consequently, adaptation requires the situational assessment of sensitivity and vulnerability to environmental impacts.
If sea levels were to rise by just
one meter, 17% of the country
(Bangladesh) would
be under-water by 2050
Environmentalists and socio-economists both agree that adaptive capacity is closely linked to social and economic development. There is also consensus that we do not know the full economic costs of adaptation to climate change, but they are likely to cost billions of US Dollars annually for the next several decades. Donor countries had promised an annual US Dollar 100 billion contribution by 2020 through the Green Climate Fund for developing countries to adapt to climate change. However, though the Fund was set up during the COP 16 meeting convened in Cancun, concrete pledges by developed countries have not been forthcoming as expected. As a result, the adaptation challenge has grown with the magnitude and the rate of climate change.
The other response to this critical climate variability problem has been undertaken through the principle of climate change mitigation. This advocates the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or enhancement of the removal of these gases from Earth’s atmosphere through Carbon Sinks. It is however agreed that even if there are reasonable reductions in emissions, this is unlikely to prevent further climate change impacts. This has made the need for adaptation unavoidable. It was this realization that persuaded environmentalists after inter-active engagement during the international Conference in Dhaka to agree that they needed to focus more seriously on measures related to adaptation, particularly with regard to unintended consequences for vulnerable groups.
Adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as two competing policy responses, with tradeoffs between the two. The other tradeoff is with climate change impacts. However, in practice, some even consider that the actual tradeoffs are debatable. This is because the people who bear emission reduction costs or benefits are often different from those who pay or benefit from adaptation measures. Participants in various meetings convened not only in New York and Geneva but also in several other countries, unfortunately, have not been able to agree on all aspects pertaining to adaptive policy financing and its integration with the development aid process. Nevertheless, there is consensus on one important factor. Outcome of such financing is dependent on the political will in that area.
It would be important to refer here also to comments made in this regard by Scheraga and Grambsch. They have identified several principles that need to be considered when designing adaptation policy. They include the following factors- (a) the effects of climate change might vary by region; (b) the effects of climate change may vary across demographic groups; (c) the effects of climate change must be considered in the context of multiple stressors and factors, which may be as important to the design of adaptive responses as the sensitivity of the change; and (d) the systemic nature of climate impacts complicates the development of adaptation policy.
Economists also suggest that enhanced adaptive capacity would reduce vulnerability to climate change and promote sustainable development. Such activities need to include – (a) improving access to resources; (b) reducing poverty; (c) lowering inequities of resources and wealth among groups; (d) improving educational opportunities and sources of information; and (e) improving institutional capacity.
Before concluding, one also needs to reflect on interesting local adaptive efforts being undertaken in different parts of the world by local government authorities in cities who realize that they have considerable responsibility in land use planning, public health, and disaster management.
Some, in this context, have already begun to take steps to adapt to threats intensified by climate change, such as flooding, bushfires, heat waves, and rising sea levels. This has included-
(a) installing protective and/ or resilient technologies and materials in properties that are prone to flooding;
(b) creating rainwater storage facilities to deal with more frequent flooding rainfall or ensuring that there is water for irrigation in case of draught; and
(c) surveying local vulnerabilities, raising public awareness, and drafting climate change-specific planning tools like future potential flood maps and raising street levels to prevent flooding (UK, Canada, Japan, South Korea and the USA).
One hopes that the relevant authorities in Bangladesh will profit from the results of these measures.
(Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance, can be reached at <[email protected]>)