Ryo Sahashi
Fumio Kishida, who served as Japan’s prime minister for nearly three years, suddenly announced on 14 August 2024 that he would not be running in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential nominee election. This was a significant development as giving up the leadership of the ruling party is effectively the same as resigning as prime minister in Japanese politics.
Throughout his term, Kishida was never a particularly popular prime minister. But when a huge political funding scandal broke in late 2023, his approval ratings and those of the LDP were hit hard.
But Kishida’s achievements are significant. In terms of security policy, he promised to increase the defence budget towards 2 per cent of GDP and introduced the counter-strike capability. He also established a system of Official Security Assistance to provide military-related materials and infrastructure to other countries.
In 2023, Kishida hosted the G7 summit in Hiroshima, the city that is his political home base. He established the International Group of Eminent Persons for a World without Nuclear Weapons, continuing Japan’s nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation diplomacy. He also worked with the United States on the Japan–United States–South Korea trilateral pact and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, as well as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. The Kishida administration did not devote much political capital to breaking the deadlock in relations with China after the COVID-19 pandemic and continued to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Security concerns about China and perceptions of anxiety about the Chinese economy remain strong in Japan, and it will take some time before Japan–China relations enter a new phase.
In terms of domestic policy, although his achievements were not universally praised, he made important decisions on issues such as restarting nuclear power plants and childcare support.
Kishida claimed that his strength was his ability to listen to other people’s opinions, but his own policy strategies and ideology were weak. As a man who genuinely wanted to become prime minister, Kishida focused on acquiring and maintaining power. A priority for him was to be flexible and resolve various policy issues and to gain the support of the mainstream factions within his own party and of the major government ministries. Unlike former prime minister Shinzo Abe, he did not like the cut and thrust of debate. His unruffled decision-making, combined with his liberal image, did not strike a strong chord with the public.
What will happen to Japanese politics, diplomacy and security policy after Kishida?
Japan has many domestic issues left to deal with, but there is also its considerable responsibility in terms of how to overcome the difficult situation in the international environment and to position Japan’s role amid the US–China rivalry, the war in Ukraine, the turmoil in the Middle East and the disturbing developments surrounding the Korean Peninsula.
The LDP presidential election is being held at a time when the factions that were the symbol of the LDP’s power politics have largely been dissolved. The weight of the senior politicians is not functioning in the same way that it used to and there are many candidates vying for the presidential nomination. The first to officially announce his candidacy was Takayuki Kobayashi, a former bureaucrat and politician who was the first minister for economic security in the Kishida cabinet. He adopts a conservative political stance and has a lot in common with Sanae Takaichi in that they both take a hardline stance towards China.
Shigeru Ishiba, who is critical of the mainstream political establishment, has also formally announced his candidacy. He is focusing on reversing the policies of the previous LDP governments in both domestic and foreign affairs, and he seems to be interested in reviewing the distance between Japan and the United States.
Of the many politicians who have lined up to run for the LDP presidency, the one who is attracting the most attention is Shinjiro Koizumi. He is only 43 years old but in addition to his popularity with the public, he is also seen as a politician with potential who has come from the non-mainstream.
So far, Koizumi has not shown a strong policy direction in either domestic or foreign affairs. But this could ultimately lead to a problem-solving, decentralised style of governance, or it could be a chance for him to make use of his experience of studying in the United States and his career as the former minister of the environment.
At this stage, it is impossible to predict who will become the president of the LDP and the 102nd prime minister of Japan. But in most scenarios, it is likely that the existing foreign and security policies will be maintained and many veteran politicians who lost out in the presidential election will join the new government’s cabinet to play important roles.
Ryo Sahashi is Associate Professor at the Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia at the University of Tokyo. His most recent publication, Japan’s Revolutionary Military Change: Explaining Why It Happened Under Kishida, is available here.
Source: East Asia Forum
