Yossi Mekelberg
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu possesses an unparalleled skill of deflection with the intention to deceive. By now, it would take an incredibly naive person to believe that the Israeli leader has any intention of reaching a peace deal with the Palestinians, let alone one based on a two-state solution.
Netanyahu talks about Iran, Lebanon or Syria, even the Houthis in Yemen, to deflect any question about expanding settlements in the Palestinian territories. He does so deliberately because he cannot justify his use of one of the main instruments in his possession to render a viable Palestinian state impossible — that of continuing to build new settlements in the West Bank and expanding existing ones.
With the eyes of the world on the impasse in advancing to Phase 2 in the Gaza ceasefire deal, or on growing tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israeli threats to resume bombing Iran, Israel’s security Cabinet last month formally approved building a further 11 new settlements in the West Bank, in addition to the legalization or recognition of eight illegal outposts and neighborhoods as new official settlements. This is a creeping annexation of a future Palestinian state.
Some readers might find the terms “legalizing and recognizing” illegal outposts and neighborhoods somewhat disconcerting, even misleading, as they suggest that the other 141 settlements in the West Bank and the 15 Jewish neighborhoods in occupied East Jerusalem are legal, in contrast to the 224 Jewish outposts and farms. This differentiation is only in the eyes of the Israeli government, between settlements that the government officially approved and those that were established by what can only be described as settlers’ buccaneering, although much of this is done with officials looking the other way or even actively supporting it.
For the rest of the world, all settlements are illegal, violating the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court's prohibition on an occupying power transferring, directly or indirectly, parts of its own population into the territory it occupies, which is regarded as a war crime. It is also in violation of the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949.
There is no single issue that could be regarded, both perceptually and physically, as more of an obstacle to peace based on a two-state solution than the building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, with several Israeli Cabinet ministers even suggesting building such settlements in the Gaza Strip, too.
With more than 700,000 settlers already living in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, many of them scattered across this small territory — located close to, in some cases inside, major Palestinian towns and cities, to deliberately strangle the development of these places and to perpetuate the Jewish presence there — the intention of complete annexation by Israel is clear.
It is not new for Israeli governments, including during the heyday of the Oslo process, to continue to build and expand settlements, justifying this folly by arguing that in some cases it is in areas already designated to remain part of Israel, in other cases to appease and sedate the opposition to peace negotiations.
However, whatever the argument, the message has been that settlements are there to stay and expand, which is paradoxical to any intention of advancing a two-state solution. At the time of the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993, there were about 110,000 settlers in the West Bank and around 140,000 in East Jerusalem. In 2026, their number is almost three times that, accompanied by the brazenness of hardcore violent settlers, emboldened by having their representatives in the heart of the current government, to terrorize the local Palestinian population.
There are hardly any expectations of the current Israeli government but for it to maintain its obstruction of Palestinian self-determination and prevent it from ever becoming a reality. One has to go down all the way to the 19th of US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to find a reference to possible Palestinian statehood stating that with Gaza rebuilt and when the Palestinian Authority “reform program is faithfully carried out,” then “the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood” — with “may” being the key word.
Even if one would like to put aside the justified skepticism regarding whether this plan actually opens a path toward a Palestinian state, a state that is truly sovereign and independent, it still cannot be reconciled with the lack of any mention of the need to stop any settlement activities as per UN Security Council Resolution 2803. This contrasts with the New York Declaration back in July, the result of a Saudi-French initiative, which called for the immediate halt of all settlement construction, land grabs and annexation activities in the Palestinian territories, including East Jerusalem, as well as an end to violence and incitements against Palestinians who live there.
The announcement of 19 new settlements brings the total to 68 since 2023. The writing was on the wall when Netanyahu included the most right-wing messianic elements in Israeli politics in the latest incarnation of his dangerous coalition governments, giving Bezalel Smotrich, in addition to his role as finance minister, a ministerial position in the Defense Ministry, ultimate authority over the civil administration that controls all civilian matters in the West Bank, including settlement planning and construction approval.
By that, the floodgates for expanding settlement construction were opened. In general, the part of Israeli society that lives in Israel proper is not interested in what is happening in the West Bank; some support the expansion of settlements, most choose to be apathetic, as if the issue does not affect them, or not done on their behalf.
But it is the relatively muted response by the international community which should worry those who remain in support of a two-state solution, in one form or another, but one that bestows on all those who reside in Israel and Palestine equal rights. To be sure, 14 nations, including the UK, several EU countries, Canada, and Japan, condemned the approval of these settlements, but this has become a futile ritual in which both the condemning countries and the condemned play their parts in a more performative diplomacy than in frank and honest conversation. Those who criticize these policies are merely going through the motions to be seen as doing something on the matter. At the same time, Israel rejects their criticism as an intervention in its internal affairs, which is hardly the case since the West Bank is an occupied territory.
As long as Washington remains silent, Israel feels confident, complacent even, in continuing to destroy the vision of a peaceful Israeli-Palestinian coexistence in two sovereign states, with every new house and settlement it builds in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
