Shantanu Mukharji
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia bilateral ties have plummeted in the last one year following Riyadh developing cold feet denting the historic and strategic relationship of many years. The ties went so bad that Saudi Arabia prematurely extracted the loan worth 3 billion US Dollars it had lent to Pakistan. However, a recent telephone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) directly to Prime Minister Imran Khan (PMIK) extending an invitation to visit the Royal Kingdom seemed to have thawed the frozen relations and soon by after PMIK paid a three day visit (May 7-9) to Saudi Arabia and in the wake of it, Pakistan has heaved a big sigh of relief with the bilateral ties showing a visible mend, judging by the high optics.
On arrival on the Saudi soil, Pakistani PM was received by MbS, breaking all protocols which shows that a renewed warmth may be in the offing between the two Islamic countries. It may not be out of context to re-examine the principal causes for Saudi Arabia distancing itself from Pakistan in the last one year or so. First was, as the domain experts say, Pakistan's immature diplomatic fiasco in getting closer to Turkey, even going overboard and towards its President, Erdogan. The second obvious reason was challenging the sanctity of the Saudi patronised Islamic outfit, Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) particularly on the issue of Kashmir where OIC was cautious in not criticising India on the latter’s stand on abrogation of Article 370 on Kashmir and effecting some structural changes in the state. In addition to this, Pakistan was warming upto erstwhile Malaysian Prime Minister Mahatir Mohamed who was trying to pose a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia in a faint attempt to usurp the Islamic leadership.
With Saudi Arabia getting relatively softer on Iran and simultaneously,
the spiralling belligerent tension between Israel
and the Palestinians and Hamas, equations may be very
interesting to watch. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s ally Turkey
threatening for military intervention against Israel amid the
ongoing imbroglio calls for a closer study of the changing geopolitical
ties in the Middle East and West Asia with Pakistan thrown in
Now, reverting to PMIK’s most recent Saudi visit, his arrival was preceded by a high profile visit by Chief of the Army Staff, General Ahmad Bajwa where he was thought to have straightened a number of tricky issues which were seen as the thorn in the flesh of Saudi side acting as impediments. Assigning this crucial task to the Army Chief is seen as an important matter, more from the Riyadh point of view, as it must have easily accepted the highest ranking Pakistani military man to pave the passage than accepting a civilian personality. It’s of course a tradition that Pakistan military officials have always been playing a significant role in the Saudi affairs of governance including for ensuring the safety and security of the monarchy. It is also believed that prior to Imran Khan’s visit, there have been hectic back channel diplomatic activity between the two countries to break the yearlong impasse and if visit is any indication, then the hiatus is surely put behind. However, only in the long run, one would be able to objectively assess how successful the visit was in terms of any substantial gains.
Meanwhile, upon his return from the Saudi Kingdom as part of the Prime Minister’s entourage, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi at a press conference on May 12, disclosed that the three day visit of the Pakistani PM saw as many as 5 concrete agreements signed out of which the first and foremost being the pillar of security and politics which will be handled exclusively by Foreign Minister Qureshi . He was also referring to the formation of a Supreme Coordination Council which will be jointly chaired by PMIK and the Saudi Crown Prince.
He further claimed that under the vision of Crown Prince MbS, millions of jobs will be created. This claim, however, looks far-fetched as we don’t know how anything would lead to creation of millions of jobs. At the media meet, the Pakistani FM also averred that the government of Saudi Arabia will help Pakistan in the fields of energy, infrastructure, water resources and hydropower projects. Analysts feel that the MoUs signed in various fields are expected to deepen political, defence and economic ties between the two countries.
Another important feature of the otherwise garrulous Foreign Minister Qureshi’s statement is his allegation that certain quarters were always trying to thwart the warmth in Saudi-Pakistan relations, probably insinuating India. His stance in any foreign policy matter has never been consistent. He is known to take u-turns on several issues including on Kashmir describing it as an internal matter of India then, ostensibly under pressure, quickly retracting from it. While India must take stock of this visit more clinically, some highly placed sources in Pakistani establishment say that President Joe Biden has pressurised the Saudi Kingdom and Pakistan to reset their ties. With Saudi Arabia getting relatively softer on Iran and simultaneously, the spiralling belligerent tension between Israel and the Palestinians and Hamas, equations may be very interesting to watch. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s ally Turkey threatening for military intervention against Israel amid the ongoing imbroglio calls for a closer study of the changing geopolitical ties in the Middle East and West Asia with Pakistan thrown in.
While summing up, the Israel military action in Gaza targeting Hamas has shaken the Islamic world. Prominent leaders representing Islamic nations are contemplating for a united action against Israel. Hopefuls are thinking President Erdogan of Turkey may take the lead. Turkey and Saudi Arabia are at logger heads. And, Turkey - Pakistan ties are on top, plus Pakistan warming upto Saudi Arabia last week might see a new alliance. OIC comprising 57 Muslim nations also wants to make its presence felt to show to the Islamic fraternity that this Saudi led OIC is concerned about the Palestinians. Under the circumstances, it’s quite a tightrope walk for Pakistan to decide to tilt on Saudi Arabia or Turkey to deal with the ongoing Middle East crisis.
Writer is a security analyst and a former National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. Views are personal
