Shortly before leaving for his first state visit to China in the middle of February, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a thinly veiled criticism of his powerful ally, saying the two countries’ relationship- trade and economic ties- had not lived up to expectations. The world was taken by a bit of surprise that the Iranian President should have made such a critical comment ahead of his State visit, the first to take place in two decades.
Raisi appears to have been keen to tell Beijing that it has not given enough support to Tehran, especially economically.
In a speech before leaving for Beijing, he also stood in front of a large map of Iran, with “Persian Gulf” marked prominently in what appeared to be a message to Xi, who had signed a joint statement with leaders of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in December last year that had annoyed Tehran. The statement had called into question Iran’s ownership of three islands in the Strait of Hormuz and this had prompted a fierce backlash in Iranian media, and also resulted in the Iranian Foreign Ministry expressing its disappointment to Beijing’s Ambassador.
Nevertheless, despite his comments Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi was welcomed by his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Beijing. This was the first state visit by an Iranian President to the Asian economic giant in two decades.
Analysts have remarked that the Iranian President was underlining an important dimension between Iran and China implementation of the China-Iran Strategic Partnership Plan (CISPP), a pact that expected Beijing to invest up to US Dollar 400 billion in Iran’s economy over a 25-year period in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil. Such a comment by Raisi suggested that the bilateral economic ties had regressed, and that the two nations needed to find a way out of such a situation. Analysts like Henry Rome, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy observed in this context that such a comment had been made by the Iranian President was an indirect call for China to live up to its end of the relationship, seeking economic guarantees from the Asian power so that President Raisi could have something to show at home in the midst of growing anti-government demonstrations and increasing global isolation.
However it would be pertinent to also refer to the observation made by Bill Figueroa, a research associate at the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge who has pointed out that the limitation in meaningful bilateral economic cooperation between China and Iran over the last few years has faced certain difficulties- sanctions, continuing unrest and protests in Tran and the difficulties Chinese investors have faced in the past in dealing with the country’s legal system.
In addition there is also another factor that is restricting Chinese capital flowing into Iran. It has to compete with Iran’s neighbouring countries like Saudi Arabia and the GCC states, who offer a more stable and lucrative environment for investment in financial and economic hubs like Dubai and Doha. It is clear that this analyst believes that Beijing will be more than willing to expand ties with Tehran, as long as it does not come at the expense of its relationship with other Middle Eastern countries or the US.
Analyst Maziar Motamedi associated with Al Jazeera has indicated that Raisi tried to show his seriousness in advancing relations by taking dozens of officials to Beijing, with his delegation including six ministers, the country’s top nuclear negotiator and its central bank chief. Iranian state media has subsequently reported that 20 substantial agreements were inked during the trip within the paradigm of the 25 year Comprehensive Cooperation Document that had been signed between the two countries in 2021.While a number of Iranian officials and state-linked media appear to have discussed the visit since its conclusion, they have not divulged many details.
In China, Raisi reportedly had a meeting with representatives of several large Chinese companies. However the focus has been mostly with regard to energy areas. Subsequently, the Iranian petroleum ministry has revealed that discussions with China are continuing on trading crude oil for goods, developing a natural gas project in southern Iran and advancing oil field projects. In the meantime information has however surfaced that Sinopec, China’s state-owned energy giant, has pulled out of the significant Yadavaran oil field project near the Iran-Iraq border, with Tehran left to go ahead with its development on its own. A petroleum ministry official has denied this and mentioned in the state media that negotiations with Chinese counterparts are continuing and there has been no official declaration by Sinopec that it is withdrawing.
It may be noted that according to analysts the Yadavaran field boasts an estimated three billion barrels of recoverable oil and has already faced a six-year development hiatus amid sanctions imposed on Iran.
It may however be observed that China had pulled out of developing phase 11 of Iran’s offshore South Pars gas field in 2019 after the United States imposed punishing sanctions on Iran following the US’s unilateral withdrawal in 2018 from the country’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
The nuclear issue associated with Iran however continues to be more than just a one-way street.
Latest reports have indicated that Iran has denied that it has intentionally enriched uranium to a purity of 84 percent amid ongoing issues with the global nuclear watchdog- IAEA- and disagreements over its 2015 nuclear deal. This came after the US-based financial news agency Bloomberg recently reported that inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had found uranium enriched to a purity of 84 percent — just below the 90 percent required for a bomb — and are trying to determine if it was produced intentionally.
This is the highest purity uranium ever found in Iran, which has gradually boosted its enrichment since 2019 after the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from its nuclear deal with world powers. Iranian officials have however consistently said that they are not seeking a nuclear weapon. Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran has nevertheless, told the state-linked Fars news website (after the Bloomberg report) that particles with a purity of higher than 60 percent had been found by inspectors, but that was nothing out of the ordinary. Behrouz Kamalvandi also reiterated that “the existence of a uranium particle or particles with a purity of over 60 percent in the enrichment process does not mean that there has been enrichment over 60 percent. This is something very natural which can even occur as a result of a decrease in the feed of centrifuge cascades at a moment. What matters is the final product, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has so far not tried to enrich over 60 percent.” He has also been critical and observed that an issue like this was not something the IAEA would even report to its member states- so the fact that it has been leaked to Western media showed it was an effort towards “smearing and warping facts”. The spokesperson also repeated Iranian accusations that the agency was being used as a “political tool” to pressure Iran with confidential reports previously leaked to the media in Western countries.
It may be noted here that the Western parties to the nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have repeatedly called on Iran to fully cooperate with the agency and restore its complete monitoring access. This issue was also raised in a recent phone call between the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian. It needs to be remembered at this point that Russia and China, both part of the JCPOA, are recognized in contemporary international relations as friends of Iran for various reasons.
It is apparent that there has been no significant progress on efforts to restore the nuclear deal since last September, when the Western parties accused Iran of derailing the talks. Since then, they have imposed different kinds of sanctions on Iranian officials and entities for allegedly supplying drones to Russia- for its armed intervention in Ukraine- and for cracking down on anti government protests.
It remains to be seen how much Iran-China ties develop under sanctions while talks to restore the 2015 nuclear accord remain deadlocked, but the Raisi visit saw China offer some rhetoric in support. Chinese President Xi in this context has urged the US for removal of sanctions against Iran as a key part of restoring the nuclear deal and has also opposed “interference by external forces in Iran’s internal affairs and undermining Iran’s security and stability”. Xi has also “gladly accepted” an invitation from Raisi to visit Iran at a later date, which would mark his first visit since 2016 as part of a tour of the Middle East.
One may recall at this juncture that the Chinese President had previously supported Iran’s now-successful bid to be part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China has also been urging members of the powerful BRICS – which groups Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – to include Tehran’s request for being part of this geo-political paradigm.
One aspect is clear. As Western sanctions and Israel’s efforts have crippled the Iranian economy, Beijing has helped to keep Tehran afloat economically. China has been Iran’s biggest oil customer, buying sanctioned but cheap barrels that other nations would not touch.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, who accompanied Raisi to China, has observed that Iran and China have agreed to remove obstacles in the way of implementing the China-Iran Strategic Partnership Plan (CISPP), a pact that expects Beijing to invest up to US Dollar 400 billion in Iran’s economy over a 25-year period in exchange for a steady supply of Iranian oil. Iran after this visit appears to be “optimistic at the results of the negotiations,” according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA. The connotation of this is that Iran is inching one step closer to Russia and China as nuclear talks falter pertaining to Iran.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialized in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance