By Tasnia Tasnim Hossain:
US General Douglas McArthur once labeled Taiwan “an unsinkable aircraft carrier” – an island fortress, meant as a bulwark for the US Island Chain Strategy against China and the erstwhile Soviet Union in the West Pacific. China always considered Taiwan as a breakaway province, which, if controlled by China, would nullify historic US influence over the region through it. It would host Chinese bases into the Pacific Ocean and extend China's military reach and influence and materialize Chinese dreams of expanding towards outside world. The Taiwan unification issue further keeps the flame of jingoism alive in China, which in turn guarantees the control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) over the population.
The US victory in the 1991 Gulf War its deployment of two Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups (CBG) during the 1995–1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis transformed an undaunted Chinese desperation into ensuing incredible expansion and transformation of its naval, vis-à-vis, overall military capabilities. In 2023, the then CIA Director William Burns highlighted Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision for PLA’s readiness by 2027 for Taiwan operations. On 20th March 2024, US Navy Admiral John Aquilino, former head of the Indo-Pacific Command and Admiral Lisa Franchetti (Retd) of the US Navy expressed their assertion of China’s military’s readiness to invade Taiwan tentatively by 2027 – commensurating with Xi’s instructions. A Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (MND) report also speculated the same in 2022. Above all, Chinese Supremo Xi Jinping’s numerous restatements concerning a Sino-Taiwanese merger along with numerous other catalysts may be indicative of a much anticipated, yet unwanted showdown in the Taiwan Strait, vis-à-vis, the Indo Pacific Region (IPR). Along with series of Chinese air/naval and live-fire exercises over the preceding years around Taiwan, the recent Thai-Cambodian Conflict was also a possible Chinese test case to measure potential US responses to assist its historic ally (Thailand).
This paper considering the following factors may be indicative of a near-term Sino-Taiwanese conflict:
China’s ongoing shipbuilding and force modernization programme expects to expand the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) Navy to 395 ships by 2025, and 435 ships by 2030. In contrast, the US Navy had 296 platforms as of August 2024. China might want to do the needful before the US Navy evens the odds. More so, according to Taiwanese Admiral Huang Shu-kuang, against a 3 CBG requirement for Taiwan invasion, China will possess 4 CBGs by 2027 (one additional).
China’s fearsome asymmetric edge over the US in Hypersonic Weapons, a key Chinese “Silver Bullet” against the formidable US military would severely erode with US fielding of sufficient hypersonic weapons latest by 2030, followed by several other regional anti-Chinese and pro-US countries. These might prompt early Chinese decisive actions regarding the Taiwan issue.
China is reportedly hastening “D-Day style” barge constructions to provide critical assistance for potential amphibious operation to overcome Taiwan’s so called “Porcupine Defence”.
Again, a Chinese drone manufacturer (Poly Technologies) has disclosed a massive government order for almost a million lightweight kamikaze drones, to be delivered by 2026. These drones, likely to be used in a potential Sino-Taiwanese Conflict will likely take more than one year for integration with PLA (2027-28).
In March 2008, China’s state-run CCTV network announced about an expanding 5,000-kilometer-long hardened tunnel network built to house the Chinese Second Artillery Corps’s (sic) nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. Such underground facilities providing protected wartime command and control centers ensure continuity of government (COG), are indicative of imminent conflict preparations.
Numerous conflict analyses show that despite all its military might and expertise, a major military power still requires years to achieve and consolidate its victory over even a smaller country. The Soviet – Afghan War, US operations in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan and Russo-Ukrainian war are compliant examples. A Chinese State Council study shows that due to rapid and consistently ageing, by 2035, China will have more than 400 million (30% of the total population) combat unworthy and non-contributing population aged above 60, translating into a reasonable timeline for China’s Taiwan operation before 2030. Another assessment of the Journal of the “Indo-Pacific Affairs Article Dashboard – Air University” of 2023 shown below, states that “a window of opportunity” exists within 2027-2030 timeline for Taiwan invasion. This allows President Xi to solidify his historic legacy in his lifetime through a politico-strategic triumph over Taiwan.
National Election related issues keep countries domestically occupied. Major stakeholders are mostly set to remain busy in the imminent years. The US Presidential elections (November 7, 2028 - January 20, 2029), India (by May 2029), Taiwan (2028), Japan (no later than 27 October 2028), Australian federal election (May – September 2028) are all serious influencing factors. With all, the transition period of next US Presidency might be the most influential indicator for Chinese actions in the Taiwan Strait.
According to Chinese petroleum giant SINOPEC, China's oil consumption is set to peak by 2027. The Estimates of China's total strategic energy reserve vary from 280 to 400 million barrels, the upper amount exceeding the US strategic petroleum reserve at roughly 364 million. China consumes some 14 million barrels a day of oil in peacetime. What seems clear, however, is that China is deliberately stockpiling essential raw materials and resource much faster. Rear Admiral (Retd) Mike Studeman, former commander of the US Office of Naval Intelligence and intelligence and Director of the US Indo-Pacific Command, argued that these appear to be preparation for a showdown. Overall, these may be indicative of preparations for an upcoming emergency/conflict scenario (Taiwan), most likely in the immediate aftermath of 2027.
NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte recently warned of a full-scale Russian attack on Europe by 2030. Danish Intelligence assumes a Russian attack on the Baltic Republics by next two years – 2027, which also coincides with probable Sino-Taiwanese conflict timelines apprehensions. A European War will benefit China by diverting the US/ NATO/ European military focus/ resources and also ceding of ongoing anti-Chinese NATO naval presence away from the IPR. The latest indecisive Trump-Putin meeting and expected prolonged Russo-Ukraine conflict probabilities further supplement such scenario.
Last, but not the least, China would like to harness the advantages the current lingering Indo-US tariff stand-off and resultant relative Indian neutral stance in a future Sino-Taiwanese Conflict.
A near-term Sino-Taiwanese-US Conflict is possibly a question of “when” not “if”. All considered, a narrowed down probable timeline may be 2028-29. Are we listening? If so, are we prepared for potential fall-outs/impacts on our country/nation? This is already 2025 ….. the Clock is ticking ….
(Tasnia Tasnim Hossain, is an International Relations (IR) Student at the Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP) and a multiple award winner of “Model United Nations (MUN)” competition sessions.)
Email: hossaintasnia08@gmail.com
