Southeast Asian leaders will dissect the impact of the US-China tariff war this weekend at a Bangkok summit, with Beijing determined to drive forward a trade pact sweeping in 40 percent of global commerce — but excluding America.
Disputes in the flashpoint South China Sea and Myanmar’s treatment of ohingya Muslims are also likely to make the agenda at the two-day ssociation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting starting Saturday in he Thai capital, agency reports.
But commerce will dominate, with the trade war between the world’s two iggest economies pushing some major manufacturers to flee China to Southeast sia and casting doubts over the future of free trade.
US President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese oods, from sneakers and socks to washing machines and furniture, prompting eijing to hit back with levies on $60 billion of American imports.
“One of the biggest beneficiaries is ASEAN,” said Drew Thompson, a esearch fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, in eference to the gains Asia’s low-cost manufacturing nations stand to make rom trade tensions between China and the United States.
Firms including Brooks Running Company and washing machine maker Haier ave already started migrating from China, seeking friendlier, lower-tariff arkets in Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia. ith the spat grinding on, Beijing is intensifying its drive to sign a
massive trade pact that sweeps in Southeast Asia. he Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) includes all 10
ASEAN economies, plus India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
It links about half the world’s population and is seen as a way for China o draft the architecture of Asian-Pacific trade, following a US retreat from he region. hortly after his election, Trump pulled the US from the Trans Pacific artnership (TPP) — which would have been the world’s largest trade deal — lamming it as an American “job killer”.
– ‘Bad news for everyone’ – ackers hoped to sign the RCEP deal by the end of this year. ut negotiations have become sticky with Australia and New Zealand pushing or “high quality” environmental and labour protections.
India is also seeking guarantees the deal will not force its market open o duty-free goods from its main economic rival China through Southeast Asia. n seeking to draw its own perimeters, New Delhi is the “glaring objector” o the free trade deal, Thompson added. xpectations of concrete progress in Bangkok have dimmed — although RCEP egotiators are scheduled to meet on Saturday.
In the absence of a deal, observers worry the short-term gains for ASEAN rom the US-China trade war may soon be consumed by falling global growth ates.
“If China and the US continue and the world economy suffers… then it’s ust bad news for everybody,” Fred Burke, managing partner at law firm Baker cKenzie in Vietnam, which specialises in investment, told AFP.
– Sea squabbles, Rohingya returns – s usual, bitter disputes over competing claims in the South China Sea are ikely to surface in Bangkok after a collision between a Filipino and Chinese hip in the resource-rich waterway.
Some officials in Manila initially blamed Chinese sailors for deliberately amming the boat and leaving Filipino fishermen stranded at sea. ut Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte this week downplayed the ncident, saying it was “just a collision”.
The flashpoint highlights the urgent need for toughened-up terms in a Code f Conduct for clashes between fishermen at sea, said Manila-based security nalyst Richard Heydarian. If the Chinese don’t rein in these fishermen… this is just going to get
worse,” he said. ORE/HR/1033
Myanmar may also face pressure over the stalled repatriation of Rohingya uslims, currently living in camps in Bangladesh, after more than 740,000 of he persecuted minority fled a 2017 army crackdown in Rakhine state.
The country’s de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi is expected in Bangkok as s Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad who has previously broken diplomatic rotocol by criticising a fellow ASEAN leader.
An upbeat ASEAN report leaked to AFP this month was criticised for redicting that half a million Rohingya will soon return, failing to use the ord “Rohingya” and glossing over ongoing violence in Rakhine.
“ASEAN needs to stop turning a blind eye to Myanmar’s atrocities against he Rohingya,” said Eva Sundari, an Indonesian MP and a board member of the SEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights. ampaigners are also urging ASEAN leaders to tackle the mounting problem f plastic and electronic waste — much of it imported from Western nations nd accumulating in Southeast Asia. reenpeace this week said the region has become “the world’s new umpsite”.
