Death and transmission from the deadly virus Covid-19 is likely to be higher this month, say experts.
An analysis of the Imperial College of Medicine in London has forecast that at the end of June, the death tally in Bangladesh may be several times higher.
According to it, the level of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection in Bangladesh is such that 1.59 more people are newly infected per day. As a result, the virus is being transmitted from one out of every 100 infected people to 150 new ones. From that 150, 250 are being infected again. From 250 people, 338 people will be newly infected again. Thus, coronavirus is spreading from 100 to 500 people in a short time.
This came up in the context of Bangladesh in the Global Infectious Diseases Analysis of the Medical Research Council (MRC) of the Imperial College of Medicine, London.
This analysis exhibited that if the current rate of infection and death continued, the number of possible daily deaths by the end of this month would be more than 10 times the current corona death rate.
Regarding this, public health expert Ruhul Amin said, such predictions, however, also change with the situation. Last March, a large number of possible corona attacks and deaths were reported in Bangladesh under the auspices of the United Nations.”
“It is known that it was a possible calculation based on a recognized model. In that situation, there was a hint of what could happen if no action is taken to deal with Corona. The situation has changed as the government has taken a number of initiatives, including declaring a general holiday to keep people at home to save them from Corona.”
MRC has made that analysis by analyzing the number of infections detected in Bangladesh. It took 11 days for the number of corona infections to reach 10,000 to 20,000 in Bangladesh.
Then it took seven days to go to 30 thousand. Then again, it took six days to go from 30 thousand to 40 thousand. It took five days for the number of identities to reach 40,000 to 50,000.
Analyzing the current context, the MRC said that unless new initiatives are taken to tackle corona, the demand for oxygen in hospitals and high blood pressure patients will increase significantly in the next four weeks.
The analysis suggests that the number of patients who need to be hospitalized by June 30 could be 19,848. In addition, in the next four weeks, the demand for beds in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) may increase up to seven times.
From the analysis of the corona epidemic in Europe, the MRC estimates that about 5 percent of corona-infected patients in Bangladesh may need treatment with high-pressure oxygen. In addition, about 30 percent of hospital admissions may require mechanical ventilation.