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Is war imminent?

Published : 05 Feb 2022 10:05 PM | Updated : 06 Feb 2022 01:04 PM

Amid the growing global tension over the Ukraine issue and the increase in the number of US-led NATO troops in Eastern Europe, Russian president Putin’s sudden Beijing visit is significant.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping conferred at a summit on Friday in Beijing where they agreed that the NATO alliance should not admit new members.

NATO leaders are trying to include Ukraine as a member of the alliance to protect what they say Ukraine's right to determine its own future and foreign policy course without external interference.

Analysts say the China-Russia collaboration, which the Russian leader hailed as ‘dignified relationship’, could frustrate US efforts to isolate Moscow over Ukraine, which was an integral part of Russia.

Ukraine was once the main source of Russia’s nuclear power and through it Russia accesses the Black Sea.

Analysts say there is little chance of any war over the Ukraine issue with Russia and China getting closer and cementing their relationship.

They say the growing Sino-Russian relations will not only protect Russia from possible NATO military intervention, but also counter the American opposition to China’s rise as a global superpower.

At the Friday meeting, held on the day Beijing Winter Olympics kicked off, the two sides adopted a long strategy document in which they hit out at “Washington’s destabilising role in global security”.

Professor Imtiaz Ahmed, former chairman of the Department of International Relations of the University of Dhaka said there is no possibility of any military conflict between the two super powers- the United States of America and Russia.

There is no question of conflict between the two super powers.  Military conflict between two super powers is a very big issue. America is trying to establish that NATO is still important in Europe. Many quarters in Europe have started thinking that the relations of Russia and China with European countries are developing day by day, especially with Germany.

The lead expert further said it is basically for the greater interests of USA’s military industries. Besides, USA is facing various crisis due to the pandemic. The US government wants to keep people busy doing something. 

The US government wants to show that Russia is still a big threat. This is why, the big military budget of USA should be kept intact.

There is no possibility of direct conflict.  Europeans will not want any conflict. America is doing this only for its own interests. Many people have started questioning the necessity of NATO as Soviet Union does no longer exist, Professor Imtiaz continued.

Bilateral relations between Germany and Russia have been deeply strengthened. Germany has also built up very good relations with China. People begin to ask in this context, why NATO should exist at all, said Dr Imtiaz, a globally renowned foreign policy expert.

US wants to keep NATO intact. There are 119 military bases in Germany.  US is trying to show pertinence or relevance of the continuity of these 119 military bases in Germany. US is trying to show that Russia is going to occupy Ukraine. 

About the possibility of Russian military intervention in Ukraine, Professor Imtiaz said, there is no possibility of Russian intervention in Ukraine at the moment.

Russia earlier occupied Crimea because there were 85 percent Russian speaking people in Crimea. Russia has learnt a good lesson from building Soviet Russia.  Russia knows it very well that building Soviet Union was harmful for Russia itself. Russia is not going to build any Soviet Union again. 

But at the same time, Russia will not want NATO enter the Eastern Europe.  US wants to enter Eastern Europe so that its military industries can reap huge benefit, he opined.

To conclude Professor Imtiaz said, creating war like situation is ultimately making US military industries the beneficiaries.

But Professor Muhamad Ruhul Amin, chairman of the International Relations warned that a war may begin between the USA and Russia over the Ukraine issue. 

He further warned that if there is any such war between the USA and Russia, the war will not be a regional war.

China has also started talking about the issue. Turkey from Europe  and Iran   are also giving some indications. This is why, the possible war may turn into global set up from regional set up, the senior academician told Bangladesh Post.

Biden administration has no chance to come back from the Ukraine issue. They must show their military power. Ukraine is the epicenter of American foreign policy in Europe. Ukraine is the hot spot. Those who rule Eurasia, will rule the whole world. Those who will be in  control of Ukraine, will dominate the whole Europe , Professor Ruhul Amin opined.

If USA can weaken the Russian dominance in Ukraine, USA will be able to continue its dominance in Eastern Europe as it has dominance in the Western Europe. 

This is why, Ukraine is a vital issue for America for strategic and geo-political reasons.

About the possible Chinese role in the issue, professor Ruhul Amin said, China will properly use the opportunity if there is any conflict between USA and Russia. China will take every possible steps for making USA weaker. Because USA interfered in many issues like South China, tension between Japan and China regarding Janapense island issue.

Responding to a question of Indian role in the Ukraine issue,  he said, I think India will indirectly support USA.

He said, Bangladesh will continue its decade- long foreign policy of non-alignment.

It will be wrong decision if Bangladesh goes to any side as we do not want to lose our friendship with China. Russia is very important for us, Professor Ruhul Amin concluded.

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