Awami League will win at least 168 to 220 seats in December 30 national polls, according to Sajeeb Wazed Joy.
This time Awami League will achieve victory with a bigger margin than in 2008 national polls, he said on his official Facebook page citing an opinion poll conducted from August to October by the Research and Development Centre.
Prime Minister’s ICT affairs adviser and son Sajeeb Wazed Joy added 66 percent of the people of the country want to see Awami League in power again, while Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) gets the support of 19.9 percent voters.
“I conducted the largest opinion poll ever undertaken in Bangladesh from August to October of this year. The polling was done by an outside polling organization, the Research and Development Center,” Joy wrote.
He went on writing “They also conducted surveys for the mayoral elections for the major cities earlier this year. If you may recall, I had posted the results on this page prior to the voting days and our results were the most accurate.”
For this poll we questioned more than 51,000 registered voters in 51 constituencies, minimum 1000 per constituency, he said, adding that the 51 constituencies were selected from a mathematical analysis of all national election results from 1991 to 2008.
“These 51 constituencies are the ones that switched parties the most or had the narrowest margins of victory on average. These are the constituencies that our party was most concerned with, he mentioned.
Joy wrote “We could not poll for candidates as this was prior to nominations.”
However, on a party basis Awami League leads in all 51, with the smallest lead 12.2 percent in Joypurhat-1 and the largest 75 percent in Barishal-4, he said further.
On a party basis, the Awami League leads in all 51, with the smallest lead 12.2 percent in Joypurhat-1 and the widest lead 75 percent in Barishal-4.
The smallest undecided vote is 2.5 percent in Tangail-3 where the AL lead is 41.5 percent and the largest is 19.8 percent in Shatkhira-3 where the AL lead is 64.7 percent, far above the undecided vote, Sajeeb said, citing the polling data.
The average AL vote is 66 percent to BNP’s 19.9 percent, with an average 8.6 percent undecided. The AL margin is again far above the undecided vote.
“More importantly, there are no constituencies where the BNP is within a 10 percent margin of the AL,” Sajeeb said. On in two seats, the BNP is within a 20 percent margin of the AL, he added.
In 28 out of the 51 constituencies, the Awami League has a margin greater than 50 percent, according to Sajeeb.
“A margin greater than 10 percent is impossible to overcome by a second party and a margin greater than 20 percent cannot be overcome even with multiple parties and independent candidates.”
These results are weighted for age and gender, which is why the totals are not always 100 percent. The constituency-wise margin of error is 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
He added for the full sample of 51,000 this poll has a margin of error of zero percent at a confidence level of 95 percent.
“Based on these polls combined with our statistical analysis of election results from 1991-2008, I am confident that the AL will win somewhere between 168 to 220 seats on its own. The Awami League’s margin of victory will be even greater than the 2008 elections” Joy summed up.